Polymarkets and Prediction Platforms Hit Their Expansive Merchants
25 September 2026
Political betting markets are increasingly the big digital-gambling story of the 2024 election season as midterms and sports season ramp up, driving an intense focus on prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and FanDuel Predicts.
Prediction markets let users trade "event contracts" on political outcomes such as control of Congress or a policy action happening by a deadline. Diverse prediction contracts, ranging from mayoral races to U.S. Senate contests, are attracting substantial pre-election trading as the CFTC and state regulators contend over whether to treat these markets as financial products or gambling.
Mids مزاضs Matter
The 2024 midterms mark an inflection point. Ahead of the election, Kalshi and Polymarket have added election-focused tools, including a Kalshi midterm elections hub for navigating 2024 contests. Polymarket has ramped up a football-season marketing campaign and a new U.S. exchange product. The platforms are positioning themselves to harness the attention generated by election season overlapping with the NFL kickoff.
The 2024 forecast also factors in regulatory clarity from a recent court ruling that let Kalshi offer election betting and the CFTC's position that prediction markets, not gambling, instead help the public forecast and plan for future events. A 20-state legal fight with the federal government is also ongoing, giving the platforms a relatively stable environment to market and scale ahead of the vote.
Kalshi and Polymarket to Conquer the Predictions Market
Kalshi and Polymarket are the top players, gaining major traction since the 2022 election. Newer platforms like ProphetX and Rothera are also touting regulatory-compliant trading on contemporary concerns. Major financial firms like Robinhood and DraftKings are also reported to be readying market entries.
With more than 50 U.S. states imposing restrictions on election betting, the two platforms are working to stake their claim before a November vote that may end up as a major test of how prediction market volumes impact the political process. Insiders say the platforms' revenue models are generating more than $13 million a month in trading volume as more investors look to prediction markets, not polling, to guide their wagers.
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Regulating Gambling 101
The legal frame regulating prediction markets remains a major open question. The CFTC says the platforms' user-generated price action—similar to traditional futures exchanges—reflects a public good of collective wisdom. "Event contracts are not gambling but instead help the public forecast, plan for, hedge, and even harness perceptions of future events," according to the CFTC spokesperson.
Newer platforms like ProphetX and Rothera are also using the spaces and buzz on the street, showcasing contemporary concerns. Major financial firms, including Robinhood and DraftKings, are readying market entries as well.
State officials and ethics experts worry the platforms could leave politics more vulnerable to insider manipulation or misguided voter psychology, setting an unwholesome precedent for the upcoming midterms, which will test whether the popularity of prediction markets will drive manipulated results.
There is an ongoing but unresolved legal debate, with 20 states challenging whether the federal government has the authority to regulate and tax prediction markets in the absence of clear guidelines on whether these are gambling products or financial instruments.
Election season adds another between-sports day dimension to the trend, boosting November trading across the midterm races. To keep up, Kalshi and Polymarket are adding betting tools specific to the 2024 contests, generating intense interest-way ahead of an election that may serve as a proof of concept of how popular these platforms are becoming and how they may change how Americans, political actors, and the media look at election trends.